The Denominator
Through ten months of 2022, 316 traders were competing in the U.S. Investing Championship. Twenty-six of them were reporting a profit.
Eight per cent. The organiser published that figure himself.
Trading competitions are sold to you from the top of the table. The winner of the small-account stock division in 2025 made 969.8%. The Enhanced Growth record is 2,115.1%. Those numbers are real, verified against brokerage statements, and they are also the least representative data in the entire contest.
The number that should shape how you read the U.S. Investing Championship is not at the top of the board. It is a single line buried in a mid-year press release: 316 participants, 26 reporting profits.
What the 8% figure actually says
In November 2022 the championship published its ten-month standings. The organiser noted that three hundred and sixteen traders had participated over those ten months and that only twenty-six, or eight per cent, were reporting profits.
2022 was a bear market. The S&P 500 lost 19.4% over the year. So one reading is that the number reflects a brutal environment rather than the contest itself.
That reading died in 2026.
Through the first half of this year, the organiser reported 688 competitors and 115 reporting profits. Seventeen per cent – in a period when the S&P 500 gained 10.2%. Better than 2022. Still means that more than four out of five people who paid to enter a real-money trading contest, in a rising market, were not up.
2022, ten months: 316 participants, 26 profitable. 8%. S&P 500 −19.4% for the year.
2026, six months: 688 competitors, 115 profitable. 17%. S&P 500 +10.2% over the period.
Who these people are
This is the part that should make you sit up.
The championship is not a demo contest. Every entrant nominates a real brokerage account before the year starts and pays a fee to do it – $475 for the $20,000 minimum competition, $1,000 for the $1 million tier. There is no cash prize. You enter for recognition.
So the population is self-selected in the most flattering direction possible. These are people confident enough in their own trading to put their statements in front of a verifier, pay for the privilege, and accept that the result gets published either way. They are not beginners who opened an account last Tuesday.
Eight per cent of that group finished ten months of 2022 in profit. Seventeen per cent got through the first half of a rising 2026.
Whatever you assumed the base rate was, adjust it down.
The number is still flattering
Here is the uncomfortable second layer. Even 8% and 17% are probably generous, because appearing in the monthly standings is optional.
The rules are explicit: a competitor can stay off the monthly lists entirely and surface only in the quarterly or final standings. Nobody has to publish a bad month. So “26 reported profits” is not the same as “26 were profitable and 290 were not” – it is closer to “26 chose to tell us they were up.”
The denominator is real. The numerator is the group that volunteered good news. Whichever way that cuts, it does not cut in favour of the leaderboard being representative.
Why this matters more than the record
Most trading content, including a great deal of it about this competition, works by showing you an outcome and implying a method. Someone made 941%. Here is roughly how they traded. The unspoken bridge is that if you trade like that, you get outcomes like that.
The 8% figure breaks the bridge. It tells you that a large number of committed, confident, self-funded traders applied their own methods for ten months and finished behind. Some of them almost certainly traded in a way that looked, from the outside, a lot like the winners.
The difference between the trader at +447% and the trader at −60% is often not the setup. It is position sizing, it is what they did in the bad month, it is whether they kept going after a run of losses. Those are Money and Mind decisions, not Method ones.
A competition leaderboard is a list of the people the variance was kind to, filtered by the people who were skilled enough to still be there. You cannot separate the two from the outside, and you should never assume the number in front of you is mostly skill.
What to do with this
Stop using contest returns as a benchmark for yourself. If you are up 20% this year on a real account and you feel behind because someone posted 400%, you are comparing yourself against the top of an eight-per-cent distribution. That is not a benchmark, it is a lottery result with a name attached.
Ask what happened to the other 290. The interesting research question in this contest is not who won. It is what the losing distribution looks like, and nobody publishes it. Every time you read a championship story, mentally attach the missing four hundred people who paid the same fee and did not make the release.
Judge yourself on process, not on ranking. The traders with the best long-run records in this competition are not the ones who spiked. Sean Ryan has entered every year since the 2019 restart and reported a profit in all seven. He has never won. He is arguably the most impressive trader on the modern boards.
Respect the fee. Everyone in that 8% paid to be there. Cost of entry has never made anyone profitable.
The honest counterweight
None of this makes the championship worthless. The opposite. It is one of the very few places where a trading claim is checked against a brokerage statement rather than a screenshot, and the winners are genuinely doing something difficult and real.
It is also the only major trading competition that publishes anything resembling a failure rate. The organiser did not have to include that sentence in the 2022 release. He did. That is more transparency than any prop firm, signal service or trading educator routinely offers.
Use the leaderboard for what it is good for – watching how real money behaves over a full calendar year, at scale, under verification. Just read it from the bottom as well as the top.
Frequently asked questions
What percentage of U.S. Investing Championship entrants make money?
The organiser has published the figure twice. Through ten months of 2022, 26 of 316 participants – 8% – reported profits. Through the first half of 2026, 115 of 688 – 17% – reported profits while the S&P 500 gained 10.2%.
Does that mean 92% of them lost money in 2022?
Not exactly. Monthly reporting is optional, so the figure counts traders who reported profits, not traders who were profitable. It is the closest thing to a published failure rate that the contest offers, and it is the right order of magnitude to work with.
Is the U.S. Investing Championship real money?
Yes. Every entrant nominates a live brokerage account before the year starts, and results are verified against statements, with live account walkthroughs when the organiser wants them.
How much does it cost to enter?
$475 for the $20,000+ championship and $1,000 for the $1,000,000+ Money Manager Verified Ratings, as at the 2026 sign-up page. There is no cash prize.
Should I enter a trading competition?
Only if you would trade the same way without it. A contest rewards the highest percentage return over twelve months, which pushes people toward concentration and leverage they would not otherwise use. If the competition changes your position sizing, it is trading you rather than the other way round.
Continue reading
- The U.S. Investing Championship: complete results, winners and records – our full research hub, including the interactive explorer and the month-by-month findings.
- The Three Pillars – why the gap between the winners and the rest is usually Money and Mind, not Method.
- Mark Minervini – the only trader to win the championship in both of its eras.
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